Anticipating Exploitation: A Futures Based Analysis, Independent Anti-Slavery Commissioner, May 2026
This report provides a forward-looking analysis of modern slavery and human trafficking, highlighting the increasing use of children in criminal activity through exploitation and how this is likely to evolve over the next decade.
Details
The report identifies a growing overlap between child exploitation and crime committed by children, particularly within organised criminal networks. Children are increasingly drawn into offending behaviour through coercion and control, most notably within “county lines” drug distribution.
A central finding is that forced criminality involving children is likely to intensify. Organised groups are becoming more sophisticated, using children in ways that combine drug supply, violence and other forms of exploitation, including digital grooming and coercion.
The scale of the issue is reflected in enforcement activity. County lines operations continue to involve large numbers of children, with policing activity identifying children as victims even when found committing serious offences. The report emphasises that such children may in fact be victims of trafficking or exploitation rather than acting independently, and are often subjected to violence, threats and control, with lasting psychological harm.
Recruitment methods are also evolving. Digital grooming and online recruitment now play a central role, with social media, messaging platforms and online gaming environments used to recruit and control children. Techniques include emotional manipulation, financial inducement and blackmail, drawing children into roles such as runners and couriers, exposing them to risks of violence and arrest.
The report highlights that child criminal exploitation is diversifying. In addition to drug distribution, children are increasingly involved in other exploitative activity, including cannabis cultivation and “cuckooing”.
Certain groups are particularly vulnerable, including children with SEND, cognitive vulnerabilities or care experience, as well as girls whose exploitation may be under-recognised due to lower suspicion of criminality.
More broadly, the report finds that systems do not consistently identify or respond appropriately to exploited children. It highlights the risk that they are treated primarily as offenders and calls for stronger safeguarding responses, including ensuring children are not criminalised for offences arising from exploitation and have access to appropriate long-term support.
Commentary
For youth justice practitioners, the report reinforces that many children appearing before the courts for serious offending, particularly in drug-related and group-bases cases, may be victims of exploitation.
It underlines the importance of a contextual approach to offending, challenging assumptions about children’s culpability. Practitioners should proactively identify indicators of exploitation, including online grooming, coercion and control, and ensure these are investigated early.
Early consideration of trafficking issues, including NRM referrals where appropriate, is essential. The report also highlights the importance of presenting a full picture of the child’s vulnerability, particularly care experience or cognitive need.
Crucially, it supports the position that children should not be criminalised for offences arising from exploitation, strengthening arguments for child-first, welfare-based approaches across charging, trial and sentencing.
Overall, it reinforces the need for youth justice systems to recognise the central role of exploitation in children’s offending and to response accordingly.
For guidance on child criminal exploitation, see YJLC Legal Guide #03.